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DK are outliers by definition. However, when calling DK outliers there is an important proviso: In standard statistics outliers are typically erroneous values and are discarded, or statistical methods are chosen that are somehow insensitive to outliers.

Contrarily, DK are outliers that are highly informative, and should be the focus of much statistical attention. Thus a first step is identifying DK in historical data.

Existing tests are either based on the asymptotic properties of the empirical distribution function EDF [13] or on an assumption about the underlying cumulative distribution function CDF of the data.

It turns out that testing for outliers relative to an exponential distribution is very general. The latter follows from the Pickands—Balkema—de Haan theorem of Extreme value theory which states that a wide range of distributions asymptotically above high thresholds have exponential or power law tails.

As an aside, this is one explanation why power law tails are so common when studying extremes. To finish the point, since the natural logarithm of a power law tail is exponential, one can take the logarithm of power law data and then test for outliers relative to an exponential tail.

There are many test statistics and techniques for testing for outliers in an exponential sample. An inward test sequentially tests the largest point, then the second largest, and so on, until the first test that is not rejected i.

The number of rejected tests identifies the number of outliers. At each step the p-value for the test statistic must be computed and, if lower than some level, the test rejected.

This test has many desirable properties: It does not require that the number of outliers be specified, it is not prone to under masking and over swamping estimation of the number outliers, it is easy to implement, and the test is independent of the value of the parameter of the exponential tail.

Some examples of where dragon kings have been detected as outliers include: I financial crashes as measured by drawdowns , where the outliers correspond to terrorist attacks e.

III the largest city measured by the population in its agglomeration in the population of cities within a country, where the largest city plays a disproportionately important role in the dynamics of the country, and benefits from unique growth; and,.

How one models and predicts dragon kings depends on the underlying mechanism. However, the common approach will require continuous monitoring of the focal system and comparing measurements with a non-linear or complex dynamic model.

It has been proposed that the more homogeneous the system, and the stronger its interactions, the more predictable it will be.

For instance, in non-linear systems with phase transitions at a critical point, it is well known that a window of predictability occurs in the neighborhood of the critical point due to precursory signs: For the phenomena of unsustainable growth e.

In systems that are discrete scale invariant such a model is power law growth, decorated with a log-periodic function.

This has been applied to many problems, [3] for instance: An interesting dynamic to consider, that may reveal the development of a block-buster success, is Epidemic phenomena: Given a model and data, one can obtain a statistical model estimate.

This model estimate can then be used to compute interesting quantities such as the conditional probability of the occurrence of a dragon king event in a future time interval, and the most probable occurrence time.

When doing statistical modeling of extremes, and using complex or nonlinear dynamic models, there is bound to be substantial uncertainty.

Thus, one should be diligent in uncertainty quantification: One can then use the estimated probabilities and their associated uncertainties to inform decisions.

In the simplest case, one performs a binary classification: For instance, one may take a specific action if a dragon king is predicted to occur.

For instance, if the cost of a miss is very large relative to the cost of a false alarm, the optimal decision will detect dragon kings more frequently than they occur.

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The number of rejected tests identifies the number of outliers. At each step the p-value for the test statistic must be computed and, if lower than some level, the test rejected.

This test has many desirable properties: It does not require that the number of outliers be specified, it is not prone to under masking and over swamping estimation of the number outliers, it is easy to implement, and the test is independent of the value of the parameter of the exponential tail.

Some examples of where dragon kings have been detected as outliers include: I financial crashes as measured by drawdowns , where the outliers correspond to terrorist attacks e.

III the largest city measured by the population in its agglomeration in the population of cities within a country, where the largest city plays a disproportionately important role in the dynamics of the country, and benefits from unique growth; and,.

How one models and predicts dragon kings depends on the underlying mechanism. However, the common approach will require continuous monitoring of the focal system and comparing measurements with a non-linear or complex dynamic model.

It has been proposed that the more homogeneous the system, and the stronger its interactions, the more predictable it will be.

For instance, in non-linear systems with phase transitions at a critical point, it is well known that a window of predictability occurs in the neighborhood of the critical point due to precursory signs: For the phenomena of unsustainable growth e.

In systems that are discrete scale invariant such a model is power law growth, decorated with a log-periodic function.

This has been applied to many problems, [3] for instance: An interesting dynamic to consider, that may reveal the development of a block-buster success, is Epidemic phenomena: Given a model and data, one can obtain a statistical model estimate.

This model estimate can then be used to compute interesting quantities such as the conditional probability of the occurrence of a dragon king event in a future time interval, and the most probable occurrence time.

When doing statistical modeling of extremes, and using complex or nonlinear dynamic models, there is bound to be substantial uncertainty.

Thus, one should be diligent in uncertainty quantification: One can then use the estimated probabilities and their associated uncertainties to inform decisions.

In the simplest case, one performs a binary classification: For instance, one may take a specific action if a dragon king is predicted to occur.

For instance, if the cost of a miss is very large relative to the cost of a false alarm, the optimal decision will detect dragon kings more frequently than they occur.

One should also study the true positive rate of the prediction. The smaller this value is, the weaker the test, and the closer one is to black swan territory.

In practice the selection of the optimal decision, and the computation of its properties must be done by cross validation with historical data if available , or on simulated data if one knows how to simulate the dragon kings.

In a dynamic setting the dataset will grow over time, and the model estimate, and its estimated probabilities will evolve.

In this dynamic setting, the test will likely be weak most of the time e. The battle resulted in a split decision from the judges, although this went in favour of Monsoon.

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Eliminated after Challenger round. Worship of the Dragon God is celebrated throughout China with sacrifices and processions during the fifth and sixth moons, and especially on the date of his birthday the thirteenth day of the sixth moon.

Media related to Dragon King at Wikimedia Commons. From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia. For other uses, see Dragon Kings disambiguation.

Chinese theology Chinese gods and immortals Chinese mythology Chinese creation myth Chinese spiritual world concepts Model humanity: Xian Zhenren Wen and wu.

Major cultural forms Chinese ancestral religion Chinese communal deity religion Chinese mother goddess worship Northeast China folk religion Main philosophical traditions: Confucianism state rites Taoism Other schools Ritual traditions: Mazuism Wang Ye worship.

These excursions form the dragon kings, as illustrated in the figure. It is claimed that such models can describe many real phenomena such as earthquakes, brain activity, etc.

It could also be the case that dragon kings are created as a result of system control or intervention. That is, trying to suppress the release of stress or death in dynamic complex systems may lead to an accumulation of stress or a maturation towards instability.

Such fires are inconvenient and thus we may wish that they are diligently extinguished. This leads to long periods without inconvenient fires, however, in the absence of fires, dead wood accumulates.

Once this accumulation reaches a critical point, and a fire starts, the fire becomes so large that it cannot be controlled — a singular event that could be considered to be a dragon king.

Dragon kings form special kinds of events leading to extreme risks which can also be opportunities. Live camera views are limited to 2x2 when using 3G.

Swipe to change cameras, up to 16 per DVR. Connect remotely to many DVRs at the same or different locations. Remote DVR monitoring can be password protected for security.

Named Cameras - User-friendly names can be assigned by the user to each camera. Vertical Portrait and Horizontal Landscape views are available.

Pan, Tilt, and Zoom functions are controllable directly from the mobile device using virtual arrow keys or gestures.

PTZ camera focus and iris adjustments if present on the camera are controllable in realtime. Preset views with user-defined names can be selected and viewed from the mobile device.

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